What If … the Patriots Had Never Fired Bill Belichick?

Bill Belichick can tell everyone that he doesn’t care about the NFL’s all-time wins record. Don’t believe him. He must. 

It’s the record that could cement him as the greatest coach of all time — beyond dispute. He’d have the most Super Bowl victories and the most wins. What else would the GOAT need on his résumé?

And Belichick was only 15 wins away when the New England Patriots fired him after the 2023 season. To make matters worse, the other 31 NFL teams showed little interest in Belichick over the past two hiring cycles. He’d been tantalizingly close to a fairy-tale ending, but now that he’s coaching in college at North Carolina, the 73-year-old Belichick seems far away from reaching his ultimate goal.

On Jan. 11, 2023, Patriots owner Robert Kraft announced he was moving on from Belichick after a 4-13 season, his third below-.500 record in his final four years in New England. As Tom Brady thrived in Tampa Bay, even winning a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers in his first season post-Patriots, Belichick’s act wore thin in New England. Media, fans and players were turning on him. Kraft decided to follow the court of public opinion.

WHAT IF the Patriots hadn’t fired Bill Belichick? 

Did he have to go? After 24 years with Belichick, Kraft could have stood by the coach. 

As rough as it got for the Patriots, it stands to reason that arguably the greatest coach in NFL history could have been given one more chance to pull the team out of its tailspin. And with hindsight being 20-20, the Patriots didn’t improve after firing Belichick. Jerod Mayo led New England to another 4-13 season last year and was dismissed. That’s how Mike Vrabel ended up with the job for 2025. 

But if we play the what-if game, if the Patriots had stuck with Belichick, I think they would have been a totally different football team in 2024 — and in 2025. I think Belichick might have even used that 2024 season to turn the franchise around. And during this coming season, the Patriots would have been in position to get the wins he needed, and so badly wanted, to pass Don Shula as the all-time winningest NFL coach.

Here’s how.

Patriots hire Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator

McDaniels is actually the team’s current OC. But he wasn’t last year. The Patriots rode with Alex Van Pelt, whom Mayo hired. Kraft loves McDaniels, and so it makes perfect sense that, with OC Bill O’Brien leaving for Boston College after a tough 2023 season in New England, Belichick would scoop up McDaniels — yet again. 

And yet again, McDaniels would prove he’s one of the best coordinators in the NFL, even if he can’t make it work as a head coach.

Belichick actually “burns some cash” on key free agents

Back in 2024, Mayo got into hot water for telling the media that the Patriots were “ready to burn some cash” in free agency. He walked back his comments and New England ultimately had a quiet offseason — electing not to use the boatload of cash that Belichick had been saving.

But if Kraft had decided to hold onto Belichick, then the Patriots might have handled things differently. Because Belichick probably had a plan for the 2025 offseason. That was why he’d been saving.

Much like New England did in reality, Belichick would’ve retained tackle Michael Onwenu and safety Kyle Dugger. He may not have retained running back Rhamondre Stevenson — and that’s because I genuinely wonder if Belichick would have chased Saquon Barkley.

After Barkley left the Giants for the Eagles, Belichick expressed his disbelief that New York had even let him hit free agency. “He was their best player,” Belichick told “The Pat McAfee Show.” I suspect Belichick would’ve done everything he could have to get Barkley into the Patriots’ Red, White and Blue. It’s hard to imagine Barkley picking the Patriots over the Eagles, but I think Belichick could have made it a really tough choice for the star running back. And if not Barkley, what about Derrick Henry? That 2024 free-agent running back class was loaded, and I could see the Patriots bringing in a big name at the RB position.

And I don’t think Belichick would have stopped there. Some of his favorite free-agent tendencies were: 1) reuniting with former Patriots who’d lost favor elsewhere and 2) stealing young, talented players from divisional rivals. I could, for example, see the Patriots bringing back Pro Bowl corner Stephon Gilmore. I could also see them targeting edge Andrew Van Ginkel and center Connor Williams, a pair of former Dolphins (who landed with the Vikings and Seahawks, respectively).

Patriots draft QB Bo Nix and first-round LT Tyler Guyton after a blockbuster deal with the Giants in the 2024 NFL Draft

New York was in love with Drake Maye. Everyone knew that. But after New England selected the North Carolina QB at No. 3 overall last year, it was also clear during Belichick’s in-draft analysis on “The Pat McAfee Show” that he wasn’t in love with Maye. Belichick was, however, effusive (by Belichick’s standards) in praising Oregon QB Bo Nix during that same draft show.

“It looks like he’s pretty — nobody’s NFL-ready — but I’d say of the college quarterbacks, he’s probably pretty close to being NFL-ready,” Belichick said of Nix while chatting with Broncos coach Sean Payton. “And like you said, the best quarterback in the pocket. The best quarterback in the situations. There’s a lot to like about this kid. And he wins.”

So Belichick would figure out how to win the draft — in his own controversial way. (It’s the only way he knew how to run the draft.) Even with a league-wide consensus about the top three quarterbacks — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Maye — Belichick would take an offer from the Giants to move back from No. 3 to sixth overall. In the process, the coach would’ve gotten the No. 6 pick and New York’s 2025 first-rounder, among other assets. 

At No. 6, the Patriots could snag Nix, who would fit nicely into McDaniels’ system.

“Nix has played a lot of football, and he’s played a lot of good football. It kind of felt like the short passing game was a product of the system, but he can definitely get the ball down the field,” Belichick said on ESPN.

I don’t think Belichick would’ve stopped his wheeling and dealing there. 

The class of free-agent tackles was weak in 2024. So I suspect Belichick would have swapped his high second-round pick and his newly acquired draft assets from the Giants to move back into the first round to nab a left tackle. Arizona’s Jordan Morgan and Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton were both within striking distance for New England. I like Guyton, whose athletic profile compares favorably to another former Patriots first-round tackle, Nate Solder. From Solder to Trent Brown to Sebastian Vollmer, Belichick loved mountains at tackle.

New England had been talking to San Francisco about acquiring Aiyuk before the 49ers signed the star receiver to an extension last August. San Francisco reportedly was willing to accept New England’s offer: a 2025 second-round pick, 2026 fourth-round pick and veteran wideout Kendrick Bourne. The Patriots then would’ve had to ink Aiyuk to a substantial new deal. 

But Aiyuk balked at the idea of joining New England in flux.

What if Belichick had been there to convince the All-Pro receiver?

The offense would have looked totally different in 2024 under Belichick’s vision. Maybe he could have convinced Aiyuk to team up with an impressive free-agent class, McDaniels, Nix and a young left tackle.

With a strong rookie season, Bo Nix helps the Patriots get back into the NFL’s middle class

New England’s defense would look stronger under Belichick than it did with Mayo. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots making the playoffs last season, even with the adjustments to the roster that I’ve presented. But there would be a groundswell of optimism if Nix looked as impressive as he did with the Broncos. He finished his rookie season in Denver with 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. If he could match that in New England, Belichick would keep his job for yet another year. And so the Patriots could finish the 2024 season with, say, eight wins — a vast improvement on what actually happened (four wins).

Would Belichick clinch the all-time wins record in 2025? Would the Patriots return to Super Bowl contention?

After an eight-win season, Belichick would’ve been just seven wins shy of breaking Shula’s record.

In that case, 2025 would be his year.

But not before he put a few finishing touches on New England’s roster during the offseason. Coming off an 8-9 record, the Patriots would have two picks in the top 15 of the 2025 draft, including a likely top-five pick from the Giants. (Drake Maye would have helped New York last season, but likely not enough to move the Giants out of the top five, where the Patriots landed with him.) New England would have no shortage of options for playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I’d bet that Belichick would have his eyes on edge Abdul Carter and/or DT Mason Graham in the top five. Then, around 15th, you can bet the Patriots would have interest in linebacker Jalon Walker, receiver Emeka Egbuka and guard Grey Zabel.

And the Patriots would have enough money to spend freely on free agents, even if they wouldn’t have the same haul as this year under Vrabel. There’s a lot of optimism around Vrabel’s Patriots after the team’s busy offseason. It’s easy to imagine a similar optimism around New England in this alternate-universe Belichick team.

He’d be back in the game on defense. His offense would be on the rise under Nix, McDaniels, Aiyuk and others. It might be vintage Belichick — rather than expired Belichick.

WHAT IF Bill Belichick hadn’t been fired by the Patriots? We might not just be talking about Belichick getting his record and New England returning to the playoffs in 2025. We might even be talking about when the Patriots will win the Super Bowl again.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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