At this point last summer, Las Vegas oddsmakers believed the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks had the five-best chances to be basketball’s last team standing after the 2025 NBA Finals.
My, how things have changed.
Oklahoma City did its job, becoming the youngest team to win an NBA championship in 48 years, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the league in scoring and took home both league MVP and Finals MVP.
Elsewhere, there was chaos.
So much so that Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are considered one of the most likely teams to challenge Oklahoma City’s throne. Yes, the same Kevin Durant that was drafted by the Seattle Supersonics in 2007 before their relocation to Oklahoma.
The highest title price I saw on Houston to win the title pre-Durant trade was 18-1, and now you’re lucky to find anything in double digits. Word travels fast.
Westgate SuperBook’s 2026 NBA title odds
Thunder +225
Cavaliers +800
Knicks +900
Rockets +900
Lakers +1400
Magic +1400
Timberwolves +1400
Nuggets +1600
Spurs +2000
Celtics +2500
“We had the Rockets at 12-1 [before acquiring Durant],” Westgate vice president of risk Jeff Sherman told me. “Moved from 12 to 10 initially and settled at 9. We got one bet at [10-1]. I was aggressively low on Houston and San Antonio because of all their youth and assets.”
Wise guys aren’t betting the Rockets at these low prices.
Meanwhile, it sure feels like the Celtics are punting on next season and kicking the can down the road for when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can play together again. Tatum was one of three players who tore his Achilles in the postseason, and it’s not fair to expect him to return within 12 months.
Boston’s been rather busy this week, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland and Kristaps Porziņģis to Atlanta, breaking up a major part of the core that delivered the franchise’s 18th championship last summer.
“The Celtics knew they would get to this point, win or lose,” Sherman said. “They had to shed salary to get under the second apron. Give them credit for trying to repeat, but things were always going to be different next year.”
Sherman went to 18-1 on the Celtics immediately after the Holiday trade and moved all the way out to 25-1 after the Porziņģis trade.
Translation: Boston is not winning the title.
My sights are set on the East, a conference that’s as wide-open as it gets. If you’re not a believer in Cleveland or New York, you can go almost anywhere.
Anywhere but Charlotte, Chicago and Washington, that is.
“Given the [Tyrese] Haliburton injury and how open the East is, I think the Sixers are completely mispriced,” Sherman said. “If [Joel] Embiid can play to his capabilities, the reward could definitely be worth the risk.”
You can find Philadelphia at 13-1 to make the NBA Finals and there’s a 16-1 on the Detroit Pistons, a team that a couple other sharps are wise on. Splitting a unit on those teams to win the East certainly isn’t the worst idea in the world.
After all, fortune favors the bold.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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